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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Mar 04 2015

U.K. Long Leading Index Bears Watching

With the major economies experiencing multi-decade declines in long-term trend growth, what lies ahead for the U.K. economy? ECRI has just updated its U.K. Long Leading Index (UKLLI), which was designed to anticipate cyclical turns in the economy before conventional leading indexes.

In 2014, U.K. GDP growth was the highest since 2007. However, following earlier weakness in UKLLI growth, Q4 growth disappointed, coming in at just 0.5%. Nevertheless, the consensus remains reasonably optimistic about U.K. growth prospects. But the latest update to the UKLLI offers different insights into the likely trajectory of U.K. economic growth.

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ECRI February 23, 2015

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