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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Nov 12 2014

U.K. Economic Growth Prospects

Two months ago, significant revisions to the U.K.’s national accounts by the Office for National Statistics upgraded Q2 2014 GDP growth, prompting analysts to claim that there was “less slack in the economy than previously thought.” Additionally, Q3 2014 GDP grew 3% year-over-year. However, the widely watched U.K. Economic Sentiment Indicator (UKESI) slipped in October to a seven-month low, slightly off a 26-year high. Should we disregard its recent weakening, with backward-looking GDP growth near an eight-year high?

ECRI’s latest update to the U.K. Long Leading Index (UKLLI) provides insight into the U.K.’s changing economic outlook, including whether or not the recent weakness in the sentiment indicator is cause for concern.

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The Agony and the Ecstasy

ECRI November 5, 2014

The inexorable decline in the employee compensation share of national income is gutting middle class incomes. More