A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Jul 31 2014

Has a U.S. Manufacturing Renaissance Begun?

In the early years of this century, the media bemoaned the death of American manufacturing, as emerging China and its abundant labor force made production in America uncompetitive. However, in recent years, the narrative has shifted, with China’s labor cost advantage gradually eroding and the shale gas revolution promising lower U.S. energy costs for the foreseeable future. Many expect companies to return their production to America as well as to invest more into the manufacturing sector, boosting both economic growth and employment.

ECRI’s latest study examines industrial growth from both structural and cyclical perspectives to determine whether the expectations of a manufacturing resurgence are warranted, or whether the consensus hopes of a true “manufacturing renaissance” are likely to be dashed.

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Cognitive Dissonance at the Fed?

ECRI May 30, 2014

As Fed and CBO trend growth estimates fall to the Fed's 2% recessionary stall speed, how does economy reach escape velocity? More