A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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May 28 2014

U.S. Industrial Production Prospects

Following the March rebound in industrial production, April’s decline surprised the consensus. Optimism had grown in part because the Purchasing Managers Indexes from both the Institute for Supply Management and Markit were pointing toward further expansion.

While those indexes remained upbeat in their latest readings, in light of the divergence between their rise and the April decline in industrial production, it is prudent to monitor the movements in ECRI’s much more comprehensive U.S. Leading Manufacturing Index, which is specifically designed to anticipate cyclical turning points in manufacturing activity.

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