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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Jul 11 2014

U.K. Job Growth Outlook

Many have been celebrating the strength in the U.K. labor market that we correctly predicted last fall, with a rise in employment pushing the jobless rate to its lowest reading in over five years. Unsurprisingly, consumers’ fears of job loss are low, while, separately, a survey of U.K. employers revealed that employers in 11 out of 12 U.K. regions expect to hire more staff over the next three months. Is continuing widespread optimism warranted?

The latest update to ECRI’s U.K. Leading Employment Index provides an answer to this question, revealing a clear trajectory for U.K. job growth prospects in the months ahead.

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Cognitive Dissonance at the Fed?

ECRI May 30, 2014

As Fed and CBO trend growth estimates fall to the Fed’s 2% recessionary stall speed, how does economy reach escape velocity? More