A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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May 15 2014

The U.K. Cyclical Outlook

Is the U.K. economy picking up pace toward a more “normal” growth rate? ECRI has just updated its U.K. Long Leading Index (UKLLI), which provides the answer. The value of this index lies in its ability to anticipate cyclical turns in economic growth before conventional leading indexes.

GDP expanded by 0.8% in the first quarter of 2014, and its year-over-year growth rose by 3.1%, the fastest in over six years. Additionally, the Bank of England (BoE) has upgraded its U.K. growth forecast for next year, with BoE governor Mark Carney saying the economy "has started to head back towards normal."

ECRI’s UKLLI provides insight into the trajectory of U.K. economic growth in the coming months, revealing whether the recent acceleration will continue, or if growth will turn down again.

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