Contact

A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

All Reports

 
May 15 2014

The U.K. Cyclical Outlook

Is the U.K. economy picking up pace toward a more “normal” growth rate? ECRI has just updated its U.K. Long Leading Index (UKLLI), which provides the answer. The value of this index lies in its ability to anticipate cyclical turns in economic growth before conventional leading indexes.

GDP expanded by 0.8% in the first quarter of 2014, and its year-over-year growth rose by 3.1%, the fastest in over six years. Additionally, the Bank of England (BoE) has upgraded its U.K. growth forecast for next year, with BoE governor Mark Carney saying the economy "has started to head back towards normal."

ECRI’s UKLLI provides insight into the trajectory of U.K. economic growth in the coming months, revealing whether the recent acceleration will continue, or if growth will turn down again.

Related News & Events

Q&A: Where Are We in Economic Cycle?

Business Insider May 9, 2014

Exclusive interview with Lakshman Achuthan, including, "What's everyone getting wrong about the state of the economy right now?" and "What's the status of your recession call?" More

 

Is the U.S. Heading Toward a Deeper Downturn?

Wall Street Journal May 1, 2014

The economy's leading indexes were pointing to a slowdown before bad weather hit earlier this year -- but there is much more to the economy’s weakness than weather. More