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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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May 18 2015

South African Cycle Update

The South African economy has been in expansion since its 2008-09 recession, but its growth has slowed since early 2011. This prolonged period of slowing growth swiftly changed South African fortunes, having joined high-flying BRIC economies in 2010 to earning a place among the “Fragile” emerging markets in 2013. In addition, persistent disruptions in electricity supply have hampered growth even further.

ECRI’s leading indicators of South African economic growth, consumer spending and exports are critical measures that show where growth is likely to head next. With the economy facing headwinds from weak export, a hobbled labor market and a growing debt burden, their latest performance warrants attention.

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Oil Price Volatility, Recessions, U.S. Outlook

Bloomberg May 11, 2015

ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan joined Bloomberg TV to discuss ECRI's recession call, the implications of oil price volatility, the two-speed economy in the U.S., and more. More

 

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