A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Aug 06 2014

Shifting Global Growth Prospects

The year began with great hopes for the global economy. Kenneth Rogoff captured the mood of global decision makers in Davos saying: “People are euphoric here, they think everything is going to be fantastic.” These expectations were dampened a bit when the U.S. economy recorded negative GDP growth in the first quarter, with Chinese industrial growth also slacking off. Now, with both improving in the second quarter, the question is whether the folks in Davos were simply premature in their optimism, and if the second half of this year will be the start of a true rebound.

In this context, we examine global growth prospects, using a wide array of ECRI’s leading indexes designed to anticipate cyclical turning points in the global economy. Consequently, we can already make clear predictions about the trajectory of global economic growth, including for key regions and sectors, for the remainder of 2014.

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Reuters August 1, 2014

In sharp contrast, on Thursday annual inflation fell to just 0.4 percent in July, its lowest reading since 2009. More


ECRI Inflation Gauge Rises to 71-month high

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Underlying inflation pressures are clearly ratcheting up. More