Contact

A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

All Reports

 
Oct 20 2015

Rising Risks in Emerging Asia

Given the Fed’s worries about emerging markets, ECRI has investigated how susceptible major export-dependent Asian economies are to exogenous shocks. Throughout the summer, the Fed had been signaling an imminent rate hike, but then kept the benchmark rate unchanged in September, voicing concerns about the “possible effects of slower economic growth in China and emerging markets.”

Our analysis is based on our country-specific leading exports indexes which capture export growth prospects for key countries in emerging Asia, including China, India, Korea and Taiwan. While export growth is currently near zero or negative across these economies, this analysis already provides insights as to the future direction of their exports, which will in turn weigh on Fed policy in the months ahead.

Related News & Events

Double-Digit Imported Deflation

ECRI September 23, 2015

Six years ago — the last time global import price deflation was this intense — the worst global recession in decades was ending. More

 

An Economic Truism: “Recession Kills Inflation”

ECRI October 15, 2015

Lingering lowflation can turn into deflation if recession hits. More

 

Three Point Summary of Today's Discussion on Bloomberg

Bloomberg October 5, 2015

Discussing the U.S. slowdown, World export price deflation and the Fed's Phillips curve approach. More

 

Related Reports