A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

All Reports

May 07 2014

Retail Sales Shifting to Essentials

Growth in retail sales jumped to 3.8% (year-over-year) in March, leading the optimistic consensus to trumpet the return of the consumer. While some snap-back in growth was inevitable, as purchases delayed by the harsh winter weather came through, is this jump in growth truly representative of a recovering consumer?

ECRI’s latest analysis helps answer this question by examining how consumers are allocating purchases between essential and non-essential goods.

Related News & Events

Is the U.S. Heading Toward a Deeper Downturn?

Wall Street Journal May 1, 2014

The economy's leading indexes were pointing to a slowdown before bad weather hit earlier this year -- but there is much more to the economy's weakness than weather. More


Earnings Growth Upturn Masks Labor Market Weakness

ECRI May 1, 2014

Earnings growth has risen for an unwelcome reason – because growth in hours has fallen faster than pay growth. More