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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Sep 22 2015

Recession or No Recession – That is the Question for Canada

With Canadian GDP dropping for two straight quarters, many think that the economy is “officially” in recession, citing the simplistic recession definition of “two down quarters of GDP.” However, two down quarters of GDP is neither a necessary nor a sufficient condition for a recession. It is well known that weakness in the U.S. economy – where economic growth has been falling since the start of the year – generally translates into weakness in the Canadian economy. In this context, ECRI’s latest analysis clarifies the outlook for the Canadian economy using a more comprehensive recession definition. Using the proper criteria, our latest report examines whether or not Canada is in a full-blown recession, and if not, what would push it over the edge. Furthermore, we examine the historical correspondence of recessions between the U.S. and Canada, with results that may come as a surprise to most. 

Related News & Events

Double-Digit Imported Deflation

ECRI September 23, 2015

Six years ago — the last time global import price deflation was this intense — the worst global recession in decades was ending. More

 

Three Highlights from Bloomberg Interview

Bloomberg September 10, 2015

Discussing the U.S. slowdown, "full employment," and world export price deflation. More

 

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