A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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May 29 2014

Reality Bites

Against the “yo-yo years” backdrop of slowing trend growth across most major economies, cyclical downturns in growth are likely to prove especially hazardous to those who refuse to recognize the reality that the global economy is not about to take off, as many had hoped when the year began.

Our objective international economic indexes tell us where we stand in various international growth and inflation cycles today and, in critical areas, their message differs from the consensus view. But if there is one guarantee in any market-oriented economy, it is that the cycle will surely keep turning.

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