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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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May 23 2014

Prospects for Consumer Spending & Business Investment

The consensus remains steadfast in its belief that the U.S. economy will take off this year, achieving annual GDP growth as high as 3% despite first quarter growth coming in a full percentage point below estimates. While Q1 was a major disappointment, Q2 growth estimates near or above 4% are commonplace, based largely on a seemingly strong showing from consumers in the first quarter and a continued anticipation of a surge in business investment.

ECRI has completed a study investigating the prospects for a rebound driven by business investment and consumer spending. As is sometimes the case, our cyclical framework offers a different view.

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The economy's leading indexes were pointing to a slowdown before bad weather hit earlier this year -- but there is much more to the economy’s weakness than weather. More

 

Q&A: Where Are We in Economic Cycle?

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Exclusive interview with Lakshman Achuthan, including, "What's everyone getting wrong about the state of the economy right now?" and "What's the status of your recession call?" More