What is driving the drop in oil, and how patient can the Fed be as it ponders the dive in long-term inflation “compensation?”

These key questions are intertwined with the fact that the average household’s real net worth has dropped by 40% since 2007, while its purchasing power has fallen by an eighth between 2004 and 2013. Understandably, making ends meet has been a struggle for many Americans. Yet, the consensus seems surprised that the stronger job gains in recent months have not resulted in significant increases in real earnings.

The latest update to our array of U.S. leading indexes examines these questions in detail, aided by an analysis of the JoC-ECRI commodity price index and some lesser-known employment data, leading to interesting implications for productivity growth.