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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Nov 01 2018

New Growth Rate Cycle Peaks for Germany and Japan

ECRI has determined that November 2017 is the latest growth rate cycle peak date for Germany and April 2017 is the latest growth rate cycle peak date for Japan.

Growth rate cycles are alternating periods of accelerating and decelerating economic growth – and occur within business cycles, which pertain to the level of activity.

Growth rate cycle downturns can culminate in either recessions or soft landings that are followed by a reacceleration in economic growth. Using an approach analogous to that used to determine business cycle dates, ECRI has established growth rate cycle chronologies for more than 20 countries and is considered the arbiter for international business cycle dates.

Click here to download ECRI's complete international growth rate cycle chronology.

Review ECRI’s recent track record here.

Related News & Events

Eurozone: Growth Downturn, Inflation Upturn No Surprise

ECRI November 1, 2018

By mid-summer ECRI was forecasting a slowdown in Eurozone growth, just the opposite of ECB expectations. That forecast is now a fact. More

 

U.S. Not Immune to Global Slowdown

Bloomberg October 23, 2018

The U.S. economy is not as resilient as the headlines suggest, as a number of cycle downturns become clear, including home price growth and broad inflation. More

 

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