Contact

A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

All Reports

 
Oct 19 2018

Taking a Break, or Rolling Over?

ECRI’s U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (USFIG) leads U.S. inflation cycle turning points.  The value of the USFIG lies in its ability to measure underlying inflationary pressures and thereby predict turning points in the U.S. inflation cycle.

Back in July 2018, ECRI warned clients in the USCO Essentials report that “Inflation pressures continue to simmer but, looking ahead, there is a hint of cooling.” ECRI doubled down on that warning  in the early August 2018 USCO Focus that noted, “Contrary to consensus expectations, there is rising risk of a downturn in inflation.”



This is the same index that foreshadowed the U.S. inflation upturn when market inflation expectations were  near their lowest readings since the financial crisis lows in mid-2016. Based on the decisive upturn in the USFIG, we already knew that a cyclical upturn in inflation was at hand.
 
In 2017, the USFIG reversed direction and correctly anticipated a cyclical downswing in inflation, when the dip in inflation was being blamed on “idiosyncratic” factors. In late 2017, Fed Chair Janet Yellen called that inflation downturn the year’s biggest surprise.
 
The USFIG turned up again right at that juncture, in late 2017, correctly predicting the most recent inflation upturn.

For a fuller history on ECRI’s inflation calls and more, please review our Track Record.

Related News & Events

Is The U.S. Economy Slowing?

New York Post October 25, 2018

If the U.S. economy is slowing, who is going to be blamed? More

 

ECRI’s Inflation Downturn Call

Grant's October 16, 2018

Achuthan joined Grant’s podcast to discuss ECRI’s cyclical worldview on inflation, home prices, EM and more. More

 

Worst Home Price Outlook Since 2009

ECRI October 15, 2018

A home price downturn is much more than a possible risk. More

 

Housing Market Is Raising Serious Red Flags

Bloomberg October 15, 2018

Real home price growth looks to have already entered a cyclical downturn that is likely to intensify as affordability worsens. More

 

Managing the Risk of Equity Corrections

CNBC August 31, 2018

ECRI's Achuthan on CNBC to discuss how equity correction risk rises during cyclical slowdowns in economic growth. More

 

Related Reports