Contact Us

All Reports

Jan 03 2019

ECRI Weekly Leading Index Growth Nears 7-Year Low

The ECRI Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth rate, which has stayed in a decisive downturn since early 2018, has already fallen to its lowest reading in nearly four years – a 199-week low.

That decline reaffirms its message that there’s no end in sight for the U.S. slowdown. This has been the prescient forecast of the ECRI index for the better part of a year, including last spring and summer, when stock prices were scaling new heights.

The original ECRI weekly index – sometimes referred to as the ECRI LEI – was created over 35 years ago by ECRI co-founder Dr. Geoffrey H. Moore, who developed the original index of leading economic indicators more than half a century ago, and gave it to the U.S. government. The WLI is the only publicly-available leading index that led both of the 21st century recessions and recoveries in real time, rather than being back-fitted after the fact.

The immediate question is whether WLI growth will plunge to its worst reading in nearly seven years, which would be an ominous sign for U.S. economic growth prospects.

As always, WLI data remains freely available every Friday at 10:30 am from ECRI’s website.

On desktop click here to download WLI data for free, including the full history of its level and growth rate.

On mobile click here to go to ECRI's Reports & Indexes page, then click the "Full Site" link to download the data.

Related News & Events

Updating Stock Price Corrections Call

CNBC January 26, 2019

ECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan shares an update on our cyclical risk of stock price corrections call. More


Interview: The Fed, Markets, Growth & Inflation

Reuters January 17, 2019

ECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan discussed our outlook for growth and inflation along with a discussion on markets and the Fed’s December blink. More


ECRI Industrial Price Index Continues to Drop

ECRI January 2, 2019

ECRI’s industrial price index is a critical tool for monitoring the risk of cycle turns in commodity price inflation. More


2018 Cycle Calls

ECRI December 31, 2018

ECRI’s 2018 real-time track record and a look at what comes next. More