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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Sep 11 2018

ECRI’s Prescient EM Downturn Call Remains in Force

Widespread fears over emerging market (EM) weakness have roiled the markets lately. While the consensus is scrambling to understand the risks, and some advocating a value-play, ECRI clients were prepared for this moment months ago.

In early June, ECRI’s analysis of many different proprietary leading indexes for emerging markets cycles in growth and inflation concluded that “ECRI’s indexes reveal a growing confluence of cyclical risks for emerging market economies.” Since then, EM has tumbled.
 


In his recent Bloomberg TV interview, ECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan shared our EM view publicly. Notably, an upturn is not yet in sight, but we are focused on that key turning point signal to sound the all-clear call when appropriate.

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Related News & Events

ECRI on EM vs. U.S. Growth

Bloomberg September 4, 2018

Bloomberg TV discussion about how emerging market weakness fits into ECRI’s public global cyclical outlook, including the U.S., and monetary policy. More

 

Will the Flattening Yield Curve Lead to Recession?

Barron's August 31, 2018

In contrast to the latest robust GDP readings, ECRI’s broader U.S. Coincident Index is below last October’s peak. More

 

Managing the Risk of Equity Corrections

CNBC August 31, 2018

ECRI's Achuthan on CNBC to discuss how equity correction risk rises during cyclical slowdowns in economic growth. More