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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Apr 19 2017

"America First" in Perspective



ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan presented ""America First" In Perspective," at the Levy Economics Institute’s 26th Annual Hyman P. Minsky Conference.

Please use this link to download a PDF of the presentation slides, including notes.

• From a near-term, cyclical point of view, our analysis of the outlook is unambiguously positive. 

• But when we expand our view to consider the next several years, because of structural factors, potential GDP growth is seriously constrained, converging to around 1% a year for the U.S.

• And the really long view over centuries and millennia makes it painfully clear how extraordinary it was for the U.S. to achieve the economic dominance that it enjoyed several decades ago.

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