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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Jul 16 2015

Japan’s Outlook for Exports

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) recently lowered its GDP forecast for the year, partly because of weakness in exports. However, BoJ Governor Kuroda remained optimistic that exports would pick up, saying, “[A]s for the outlook, exports are expected to increase moderately… due to improvements in overseas economies and the boost from a weak yen."

To verify whether Governor Kuroda’s positive outlook is warranted, we monitor ECRI’s Japanese Leading Exports Index (JALExI), specifically designed to anticipate cyclical turning points in Japanese exports, which bears a surprise for the BoJ.

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Recoveries Remain Resilient

ECRI July 15, 2015

The big developed economies — especially in Europe — are not yet vulnerable to recessionary shocks. More

 

Low Trend Growth, Productivity Hopes, and the Outlook

Bloomberg July 1, 2015

How long-term growth trends in productivity and hours worked help explain the long-term decline in trend growth ECRI first identified in 2008, pre-Lehman. More

 

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