A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Oct 06 2014

Japan Industrial Production Confirms Recession Track

While the latest decline in Japanese industrial production growth disappointed the consensus, it was anticipated by an earlier cyclical downturn in the growth rate of our Japanese Leading Manufacturing Index (JALMI). More importantly, it confirms our earlier prediction that Japan is on track for its fourth recession since 2008. Accordingly, over the last quarter century, Japanese industrial production growth has never been this low outside of recession.

Going forward, to stay abreast of changes in the Japanese industrial growth outlook, it remains important to monitor the growth rate of ECRI’s JALMI.

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A Convenient Smokescreen

ECRI October 2, 2014

A summary measure of Yellen's 24-indicator "dashboard" contains virtually no information that cannot be gleaned from the jobless rate alone. More