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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Feb 09 2015

Italian Industrial Growth Fosters Hope of Recovery

The Italian economy has long disappointed, struggling to emerge from nearly four years of recession. Indeed, the unemployment rate remains close to a record high, and consumer price inflation has been unable to dispel the threat of deflation, indicative of underlying structural issues that continue to weigh on the economy. Against this bleak backdrop, the consensus was rather upbeat following November’s better-than-expected industrial production reading. While this result boosted optimism that the Italian economy might be near an upturn, is this really likely?

In our latest review of key countries in Europe, ECRI addresses Italian industrial growth prospects, providing valuable insight into the likelihood of an overall cyclical recovery.

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A Bit of a Surprise?

ECRI January 13, 2015

One of 2014’s biggest surprises – falling oil prices – is completely consistent with our timely call on global growth. When made last July, that forecast was opposed to the consensus view. More