A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Dec 29 2014

Italian Export Growth May Surprise Further

Italian GDP contracted in Q3 2014, as the Italian economy remained mired in a nearly-four-year recession. In fact, Italian real GDP growth has contracted in 12 of the last 13 quarters. But growth in exports, which account for roughly 30% of GDP, has actually been in a cyclical upturn since early 2013, and remains near the seven-quarter high seen in Q2 2014. So, will export growth improve further and be a bright spot for the Italian economy, helping to counter weak domestic demand and falling investment?

To shed light on this question, ECRI monitors growth in the Italian Leading Exports Index, designed to anticipate cyclical turns in Italian real export growth. Italian real export growth bottomed in Q1 2013 and has been in a cyclical upturn following the late 2012 trough in Italian Leading Exports Index growth, and the latest update tells us if it will persist, or not.

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Detailed Interview on our Approach

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