Industrial commodity prices are now rising. In a little over a month, crude oil prices have increased by about a quarter. But this is about much more than oil. Growth in the Journal of Commerce-ECRI Industrial Price Index (JoC-ECRI IPI) turned up two and a half months ago, and has now risen to a four-month high. In doing so, it has validated our prediction that “the odds are that [industrial price index] growth will turn up relatively soon” (ICO Essentials, February 2015).

What comes next depends on the cyclical outlook for global growth, including important industrial sectors.