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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Apr 29 2015

Is the Surf Up?

Industrial commodity prices are now rising. In a little over a month, crude oil prices have increased by about a quarter. But this is about much more than oil. Growth in the Journal of Commerce-ECRI Industrial Price Index (JoC-ECRI IPI) turned up two and a half months ago, and has now risen to a four-month high. In doing so, it has validated our prediction that “the odds are that [industrial price index] growth will turn up relatively soon” (ICO Essentials, February 2015).

What comes next depends on the cyclical outlook for global growth, including important industrial sectors.

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