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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Dec 18 2014

Indian Export Growth Prospects

A little over a year ago, the mood in India was deeply pessimistic. Economic growth had been underperforming for years and inflation, especially for essential food items, was at worrisome levels. This was the situation when Raghuram Rajan took over as Governor of the Reserve Bank of India in September of 2013, following which the economic reform-minded Narendra Modi became India’s new Prime Minister in a landslide victory earlier this year. With inflation now under control and economic growth off its lows, the mood has improved dramatically.

However, it is easily overlooked that real export growth has eased, and actually contracted in the third quarter. With exports accounting for roughly 30% of GDP, if this weakness were to persist, it could be a serious drag on Indian economic growth. To assess the possibility, we look to ECRI’s Indian Leading Export Index (INLExI), which is designed to anticipate cyclical turning points in Indian exports and is already providing important information about the trajectory of Indian export growth.

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Detailed Interview on our Approach

Real Vision TV December 5, 2014

Discussing ECRI's research approach, with comments on the outlook, in a 69 minute interview with Real Vision TV. More

 

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