A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Jan 02 2015

India Overtakes China with Brighter Outlook to Start 2015

ECRI has updated the Indian Long Leading Index (INLLI), which has a good record of anticipating cyclical turns before conventional leading indexes. This includes the March 2011 to September 2012 growth rate cycle downturn that caught many by surprise.

The latest INLLI reading provides insight into the current optimism surrounding India’s economic prospects that stands in contrast to the consensus view on emerging markets in general. 

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2015: Slowing Ahead

Al Jazeera December 24, 2014

A few times since the Great Recession we've had year-over-year GDP growth stronger than in Q3 2014, only to slide back again. More