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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Aug 13 2015

Increasing Risks of More Frequent Recessions in the Global Economy

An era of more frequent recessions – which we identified years ago as the yo-yo years – has been ushered in by long-term lower trend growth. The global economy transitioned into these yo-yo years from the 20th to the 21st century, with the shift intensifying after the Global Financial Crisis. Yet, many economists continue to ignore this critical development, making forecasts based on trend growth rates that have not been sustained in the 21st century.

In this context, ECRI has just expanded its earlier study about recession probabilities in 21 advanced and emerging economies, examining how the shape of economic cycles has shifted from the 20th to the 21st century, and how business cycle and growth rate cycle durations have indeed changed.

Related News & Events

Collision Course

ECRI August 5, 2015

The Fed’s rate hike plans are on a collision course with the economic cycle. More

 

ECRI Inflation Gauge Rises

Bond Buyer August 7, 2015

Having increased in July, the USFIG has risen further above March's 16-month low. More

 

Eurozone Inflation Pressures Tick Down

Reuters August 7, 2015

The Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge dipped in its latest reading from a four-year high. More