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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Jul 21 2014

Has the Chinese Economy Bottomed?

Chinese GDP grew by 7.5% in the second quarter compared to a year earlier, slightly exceeding consensus expectations. This performance was in line with ECRI’s earlier forecast of modest firming in Chinese growth. But is a sigh of relief warranted for the world’s second largest economy, or premature?

ECRI’s latest update to the Chinese Long Leading Index (CNLLI) provides insight into the trajectory of the Chinese economy in the coming months, indicating whether improving growth prospects are on the horizon, or if the latest GDP data release should be taken with a grain of salt.

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Cognitive Dissonance at the Fed?

ECRI May 30, 2014

As Fed and CBO trend growth estimates fall to the Fed’s 2% recessionary stall speed, how does economy reach escape velocity? More

 

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