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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Jul 29 2015

Global Growth Fears

Looking at the decline in commodity prices, along with the prospect of a Fed rate hike, many are starting to believe that things are falling apart.

And following our updated view on the U.S. economic slowdown, the Chinese Purchasing Managers Index (CNPMI), which had begun to edge up, dropped to a 15-month low in July. Alongside the recent crash in the Chinese stock market, which has lost nearly a third of its value since its peak, the CNPMI weakness looks alarming.

On the surface all this sounds quite dire, but a different, more nuanced cyclical outlook is revealed by ECRI’s leading indexes.

Related News & Events

New Business and Growth Rate Cycle Dates Determined, Including the U.S., Japan and Germany

ECRI July 20, 2015

New cycle dates for the U.S., Japan, Germany, Brazil, Switzerland, Austria, Taiwan, New Zealand and South Africa. More

 

Recoveries Remain Resilient

ECRI July 15, 2015

The big developed economies — especially in Europe — are not yet vulnerable to recessionary shocks. More

 

Low Trend Growth, Productivity Hopes, and the Outlook

Bloomberg July 1, 2015

How long-term growth trends in productivity and hours worked help explain the long-term decline in trend growth ECRI first identified in 2008, pre-Lehman. More

 

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