A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Dec 22 2014

German Retail Sales Growth Prospects

Concerns have mounted about Europe’s largest economy, Germany, as recent data have failed to impress, prompting the Bundesbank to slash its forecast for German growth next year to 1%. However, German retail sales rebounded stronger than expected in their latest reading, following September’s slump, leading some to think that this weakness was just an anomaly.

ECRI’s has just updated its German Long Leading Index (GELLI), which also anticipates cyclical turning points in German retail sales growth, clarifying if retail sales data will improve further in coming months.

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Detailed Interview on our Approach

Real Vision TV December 5, 2014

Discussing ECRI's research approach, with comments on the outlook, in a 69 minute interview with Real Vision TV. More