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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Sep 08 2014

German Job Prospects

Germany, often hailed as Europe’s growth locomotive, suffered an unexpected contraction in Q2 2014, as GDP fell 0.2% quarter-over-quarter. Additionally, year-over-year (yoy) German employment growth slipped in its latest reading, while staying near April’s 16-month high. Is the recent data an ominous sign?

ECRI’s latest update to the German Leading Employment Index (GELEI) provides insight into changing job market prospects for Germany, including whether or not the recent slip in employment growth data is cause for concern.

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The Fear of Wages Is Dead

ECRI August 29, 2014

A keystone of current market complacency is the growing conviction that, with wage growth flagging, the Fed will not hike rates sooner or faster than expected. More