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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Oct 01 2015

Falling Exports Cause Concern in Taiwan

Last month the Taiwanese government cut its 2015 GDP forecast by more than half, citing weak exports. Then, in a move that surprised the consensus, the central bank also cut its benchmark interest rate for the first time since 2009. Falling export growth, against the backdrop of collapsing world trade, has clearly been a concern for the export-driven Taiwanese economy. Indeed, year-over-year growth in both GDP and real exports declined to three-year lows in Q2.

With exports accounting for over 70% of Taiwan’s GDP, continued weakness could be a significant drag on overall economic growth. In this context, ECRI’s latest update to the Taiwanese Leading Exports Index, specifically designed to anticipate cyclical turning points in Taiwanese exports, shows what lies ahead.

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Double-Digit Imported Deflation

ECRI September 23, 2015

Six years ago — the last time global import price deflation was this intense — the worst global recession in decades was ending. More

 

Three Highlights from Bloomberg Interview

Bloomberg September 10, 2015

Discussing the U.S. slowdown, "full employment," and world export price deflation. More

 

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