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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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May 05 2015

Despite Higher GDP, Spanish Unemployment Rate Still Rising

ECRI has just updated its Spanish Long Leading Index (ESLLI) the value of which lies in its ability to anticipate cyclical turns in the economy before conventional leading indexes.

Two years ago, ECRI correctly anticipated a growth rate cycle upturn in Spain.  Indeed, the Spanish economy grew 1.4% in 2014 and in Q1 2015, GDP growth rose to 0.9% quarter-over-quarter, the fastest pace since 2007. More recently, the Spanish government increased its forecast of economic growth to 2.9% for this year. However, despite heightened expectations, nearly a quarter of Spaniards cannot find work. And, with the latest unemployment rate ticking up towards 24% in Q1, recent optimism surrounding economic growth may be premature.
 
The latest update to the ESLLI offers unique insight into the economic outlook for Spain, and clarifies whether the Spanish economy is indeed poised for stronger growth in the coming months, or not.

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