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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Jul 10 2014

Consumer Spending Outlook for Brazil

Brazil recorded only 0.2% quarter-on-quarter GDP growth in Q1 2014, disappointing consensus expectations, but in line with our earlier assessment. Some are looking to the consumer as a catalyst for economic growth, hoping that their hosting of the World Cup will provide a much-needed boost to their economy since over half a million tourists are expected to visit. However, with consumer confidence plunging to its worst reading since spring 2009, is this likely to happen?

ECRI’s latest report updates our Brazilian Long Leading Index, which sheds light on whether consumer spending growth will help boost the Brazilian economy in coming months.

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Cognitive Dissonance at the Fed?

ECRI May 30, 2014

As Fed and CBO trend growth estimates fall to the Fed’s 2% recessionary stall speed, how does economy reach escape velocity? More