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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Jun 12 2014

Consumer Credit Growth Jumps as Savings Rate Dwindles

In April, consumer credit growth increased at its fastest pace in nearly three years, bolstering the consensus view of a rebounding consumer. However, year-over-year growth in revolving credit – largely credit card spending – remains far below its historical average of 11% in the quarter century preceding the Great Recession. Furthermore, with the personal savings rate near its lowest rate since 2008, consumers have little choice but to rely on credit.

ECRI’s latest analysis provides a clearer picture of consumer spending, examining whether its apparent strength stands up to scrutiny.

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Cognitive Dissonance at the Fed?

ECRI May 30, 2014

As Fed and CBO trend growth estimates fall to the Fed’s 2% recessionary stall speed, how does economy reach escape velocity? More