A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Dec 02 2015

Chinese Home Price Growth Outlook

By the summer of 2014, year-over-year Chinese home price growth had declined sharply, following the earlier downturn in the growth rate of our Chinese Leading Home Price Index (CNLHPI). After dropping to a record low earlier this year, home price growth has stabilized, with home prices having risen in some Chinese cities, sparking more optimism among the consensus about home price growth prospects. However, given the variation of growth across provinces, there is confusion about whether the tentative improvement is real, or just noise.
Our latest update features a Chinese home price “heat map,” which displays the change in nominal home price growth in the major cities of each province, providing important context for the current situation. Meanwhile, the CNLHPI sheds light on the future trajectory of home price growth.

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