A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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May 04 2015

Chasing The Monsoon

In an effort to boost growth, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut rates twice earlier in the year, but kept it flat for the last two months. While some believe the drop in the growth rate of the Indian Wholesale Price Index to nearly a four-decade low should provide further room for easing, others are concerned that the rise in oil prices and a sub-par monsoon could push prices up, making additional rate cuts less likely.

In this context, ECRI’s Indian Alternative Future Inflation Gauge, which measures underlying inflationary pressures and thereby anticipates cyclical turning points in Indian inflation, already provides useful information about the Indian outlook.

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