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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Jul 27 2015

Canadian Manufacturing’s Impact on Overall Economy

The collapse in oil prices combined with the slowing U.S. economy have hammered the Canadian economy in recent months, leading the Bank of Canada to cut its benchmark rate for the second time this year as Canadian GDP contracted in both Q1 and Q2 2015. While this satisfies the simplistic recession rule-of-thumb, by the proper recession definition – subsuming the performance of output, employment, income, and sales – a recession is not yet clear.

Although several other major developed economies remain resilient to recession at this point, the Canadian outlook is concerning. With that in mind, we examine Canadian manufacturing prospects, determining how this major sector will impact the overall Canadian economy.

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The big developed economies — especially in Europe — are not yet vulnerable to recessionary shocks. More

 

Low Trend Growth, Productivity Hopes, and the Outlook

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How long-term growth trends in productivity and hours worked help explain the long-term decline in trend growth ECRI first identified in 2008, pre-Lehman. More