A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Sep 04 2014

Brazil's Economic Outlook

ECRI has been pessimistic about the Brazilian economy since the beginning of the year, well before the World Cup. Now, as investments have fallen, driving a second quarter contraction of GDP, the consensus outlook has come around to agree. But the question today is whether the coming quarters will see any improvement.

In this context, ECRI’s Brazilian Long Leading Index, which correctly anticipated the Brazilian economy’s weakness, already provides unambiguous insights into the economic outlook for the next few quarters.

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The Fear of Wages Is Dead

ECRI August 29, 2014

A keystone of current market complacency is the growing conviction that, with wage growth flagging, the Fed will not hike rates sooner or faster than expected. More