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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Feb 19 2015

BoC “Insurance” Not Enough to Boost Manufacturing

Last month, the Bank of Canada (BoC) caught the consensus off-guard, cutting rates as “insurance” – according to BoC Governor Stephen Poloz – against plunging oil prices, which was consistent with our global growth slowdown call. That drop in oil prices has slowed the Canadian economy, with GDP growth declining to a seven-month low in November. Manufacturing, in particular, has been hit hard, as manufacturing GDP growth slowed from 5.8% in July to 0.3%, a ten-month low, in its latest reading. Following the BoC’s rate cut, will the faltering manufacturing sector turn around?

ECRI’s latest analysis of its specialized leading indexes clarifies the trajectory of the Canadian manufacturing sector, signaling whether it has bottomed or will continue to worsen.

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Detailed Interview on our Approach

Real Vision TV December 5, 2014

Discussing ECRI's research approach, with comments on the outlook, in a 69 minute interview with Real Vision TV. More