A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

All Reports

Sep 03 2015

Australian Economy Shooting for Gold

Australia started the week as though it were going for Olympic gold: “We are going to break the record and go beyond the Dutch,” said Federal Treasurer Joe Hockey, referring to Australia’s remarkable 26 consecutive years without a recession. But backward-looking goals give a false sense of invulnerability, especially since year-over-year real GDP growth has fallen to a seven-quarter low, well below its 2012 high, with declining investment growth driving much of the weakness.

Our latest cycle analysis distinguishes between investment in the mining and non-mining states within Australia. As the mining boom has ended, the latter has become particularly important.

Related News & Events

A Shrinking Trade Pie

ECRI August 17, 2015

Following years of extraordinary policy stimulus, world trade growth has collapsed. More


Collision Course

ECRI August 5, 2015

The Fed's rate hike plans are on a collision course with the economic cycle. More


Related Reports