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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Sep 03 2015

Australian Economy Shooting for Gold

Australia started the week as though it were going for Olympic gold: “We are going to break the record and go beyond the Dutch,” said Federal Treasurer Joe Hockey, referring to Australia’s remarkable 26 consecutive years without a recession. But backward-looking goals give a false sense of invulnerability, especially since year-over-year real GDP growth has fallen to a seven-quarter low, well below its 2012 high, with declining investment growth driving much of the weakness.

Our latest cycle analysis distinguishes between investment in the mining and non-mining states within Australia. As the mining boom has ended, the latter has become particularly important.

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