A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

ECRI uses a highly nuanced “many-cycles” view to understand the complex dynamics of the global economy.
To monitor the U.S. economy alone, we use an array of more than a dozen specialized leading indexes in the context of the ECRI framework for incorporating various sectors and aspects of the economy.
The ECRI framework covers 21 economies, incorporating well over 100 proprietary indexes designed to be comparable across borders.

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Freely download the report, including charts, by clicking here.

Our prediction of more frequent recessions in developed economies has come to pass, with major economies experiencing additional recessionary downswings since the global financial crisis.

Over five and a half years ago, before the Lehman Brothers failure, we argued that U.S. trend growth had been stair-stepping down in successive expansions since the 1970s. A key implication is that cyclical downturns in growth would have more chance of becoming recessions.

We now have confirmation that this has already happened, and there is little reason to believe it is over. ECRI's April 2014 International Cyclical Outlook included a "focus" section describing how more frequent recessions in the developed economies are already a reality.

Full Report: April 25, 2014: International Cyclical Outlook

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