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May 30 2014

An Accurate Forecast

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Our prediction of more frequent recessions in developed economies has come to pass, with major economies experiencing additional recessionary downswings since the global financial crisis.

Over five and a half years ago, before the Lehman Brothers failure, we argued that U.S. trend growth had been stair-stepping down in successive expansions since the 1970s. A key implication is that cyclical downturns in growth would have more chance of becoming recessions.

We now have confirmation that this has already happened, and there is little reason to believe it is over. ECRI's April 2014 International Cyclical Outlook included a "focus" section describing how more frequent recessions in the developed economies are already a reality.

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