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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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May 30 2014

An Accurate Forecast

Freely download the report, including charts, by clicking here.

Our prediction of more frequent recessions in developed economies has come to pass, with major economies experiencing additional recessionary downswings since the global financial crisis.

Over five and a half years ago, before the Lehman Brothers failure, we argued that U.S. trend growth had been stair-stepping down in successive expansions since the 1970s. A key implication is that cyclical downturns in growth would have more chance of becoming recessions.

We now have confirmation that this has already happened, and there is little reason to believe it is over. ECRI's April 2014 International Cyclical Outlook included a "focus" section describing how more frequent recessions in the developed economies are already a reality.

Related News & Events

Becoming Japan (Part 1)

ECRI July 30, 2013

Japan’s lost decades showed faster GDP growth than in the U.S. and other major economies in the last five years. More

 

US Money Slump Flashes Warnings as Economy Contracts

The Daily Telegraph May 30, 2014

The US seems caught in a Japan-style trap, endlessly masking the effect by stealing a little extra growth from the future with artificial stimulus. More