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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Apr 30 2014

An Accurate Forecast

In August 2008, before the Lehman Brothers collapse, we showed that growth in U.S. GDP and jobs had already been stair-stepping down in successive expansions. We went on to anticipate the advent of an era of more frequent recessions in most developed economies, concluding that the frequency of business cycle recessions was likely to increase, relative to expectations.

Five years later, we have examined the evidence from the G7 economies to see if our “yo-yo years” thesis has held up. It is striking that recessionary and near-recessionary readings did occur despite unprecedented, concerted and massive global monetary accommodation as a backdrop.

With heightened cyclical risks in the U.S and abroad, our latest study offers critical insights for navigating economic and inflation cycles, backed by ECRI’s framework of objective leading indexes that provide early warning for successful real-time cyclical monitoring.

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Failure to Launch

ECRI February 8, 2014

As ECRI had predicted, the recent consensus that the economy was "taking off" has turned out to be dead wrong, with U.S. growth falling sharply of late. More