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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Apr 22 2014

Deceptive Facts

The recent pop in economic data has reassured the consensus that the economy has recovered from its bad-weather stumble and is back on track to attain “escape velocity,” and the Fed’s QE tapering seems to confirm this confident outlook. But is this a case where, as Sherlock Holmes observed, “there is nothing more deceptive than an obvious fact?”

In this context, ECRI has completed an in-depth analysis of the cyclical outlook for the U.S. economy, highlighting the cyclical performance of hourly earnings and inflation, and separately, the construction sector. While there continue to be high hopes that the economy will see sustained 3%-plus growth for the rest of this year and beyond, a deeper dive into less-obvious facts may be in order.

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Failure to Launch

ECRI February 8, 2014

As ECRI had predicted, the recent consensus that the economy was "taking off" has turned out to be dead wrong, with U.S. growth falling sharply of late. More