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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Mar 06 2014

Cyclical Risks for the Chinese Economy

Chinese economic developments have kept the markets on edge, as a cash crunch in December drove up short-term rates, followed in January and February by a plunge in the purchasing managers index for manufacturing. More recently, the Chinese yuan has weakened amid ongoing worries about the shadow banking situation.

Given China’s growing economic might as the world’s largest exporter, and soon-to-be-the-largest importer, ECRI has completed an in-depth cyclical analysis of its economy, highlighting economic growth, inflation, home prices, exports and the banking system. In light of the various pressures shaping the central bank’s policy stance, the report offers nuanced views on the road ahead for the Chinese economy.

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Failure to Launch

ECRI February 8, 2014

As ECRI had predicted, the recent consensus that the economy was "taking off" has turned out to be dead wrong, with U.S. growth falling sharply of late. More