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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Nov 02 2012

Cyclical Outlook for the Korean Economy

ECRI has just updated its Korean Long Leading Index (KOLLI). The value of this index lies in its ability to anticipate cyclical turns in the economy before conventional leading indexes.

On the heels of news that Korean export growth fell 5.6% in the third quarter, the Bank of Korea (BoK) reported last week that third quarter GDP growth expanded at its weakest pace in three years, growing at just 1.6%. However, with September’s industrial production figure showing positive growth for the first time in four months and exports rebounding modestly in October, the Korean economy may be showing signs of improvement.

ECRI’s latest update to the KOLLI provides insight into whether the Korean economy is at a turning point, or if the weakness will persist.

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Nine months ago we knew that, sitting here today, most people probably would not realize that we are in recession – and we do believe we are in recession. More

 

The Tell-Tale Chart

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Reviewing the indicators used to officially decide U.S. recession dates, it looks like the recession began around July 2012. More