A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Dec 04 2012

Cyclical Crosscurrents in the U.K. Economy

The U.K. has been experiencing economic turbulence including two recessions in the past five years, separated by only a brief expansion in 2010. Recently, the third quarter GDP showed positive growth, but many still remain unsure about the U.K.’s economic situation. Some are calling for a “triple-dip” recession, noting that GDP growth has simply been pushed up by one-off events like the Olympics. At the same time, contrary to the widely-celebrated GDP news, retail sales are weaker than expected, while manufacturing growth is languishing below zero.

Cutting through these competing signals, ECRI has just completed an in depth analysis to assess the U.K. economy’s strengths and vulnerabilities from the perspective of inflation and economic growth. The analysis, based on an array of ECRI’s U.K. coincident and leading indexes, sifts through the cyclical undercurrents in the U.K. economy clarifying whether it will emerge from the recession.

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The Tell-Tale Chart

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Reviewing the indicators used to officially decide U.S. recession dates, it looks like the recession began around July 2012. More


Ignore GDP and the Fiscal Cliff, U.S. Is Already in Recession

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Ignore GDP and the Fiscal Cliff, U.S. Is Already in Recession: ECRI's Achuthan More


The Yo-Yo Years

ECRI March 22, 2012

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