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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Aug 09 2012

Chinese Home Price Outlook

Thanks to an encouraging June reading for Chinese home price growth, the consensus is now more optimistic that Chinese home price growth will recover in the months ahead. The rise is commonly attributed in part to monetary easing by the People’s Bank of China, which has cut interest rates since early June to stimulate the economy. However, the outlook for Chinese home price growth had already improved before these rate cuts.

In fact, the growth rate of ECRI’s Chinese Leading Home Price Index (CNLHPI), designed to anticipate cyclical turning points in Chinese home price growth, had already risen for several months before the monetary stimulus, indicating that home price growth would stabilize. Meanwhile, the latest update of the CNLHPI shows that monitoring this measure remains valuable to stay ahead of the pack.

Related News & Events

Eurozone price pressures at 27-mth low

Reuters August 3, 2012

ECRI FIG data show that price pressures in the euro zone fell to a 27-month low in June, easing in all four of the bloc's biggest economies. More