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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Aug 08 2013

Chinese Export Growth Outlook

After disappointing figures for June, Chinese year-over-year export growth surprised to the upside in July, but remained well below its recent highs. Thus, it is unclear from the data if this is a genuine upturn in export growth that is strong enough to boost overall Chinese economic growth.

In this context, it is important to monitor ECRI’s Chinese Leading Export Index (CNLExI), because its growth rate anticipates cyclical turning points in Chinese export growth. Consequently, it provides clarity about the trajectory of Chinese export growth in the months ahead.

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Bloomberg Interview on Becoming Japan

Bloomberg July 30, 2013

ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan joined Bloomberg TV this morning to discuss our recession call, and how the U.S. economy is now resembling Japan's "lost decades." More