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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Aug 29 2012

China Slows as Expected, but What Comes Next?

Over the past few years, and especially as other economies have stumbled, it became an article of faith that emerging markets, in particular China, would manage to drive global growth. With China responsible for about a fifth of the world’s industrial output, such hope is understandable.

Lately though, there has been a perceived shudder of weakness in Chinese economic indicators, notably for GDP and manufacturing, which has roiled the consensus. Is this weakness likely to worsen, or is it just a blip in activity? Last fall, ECRI predicted a cyclical downturn in China, concluding that it would be unable to rescue the global economy from its downturn.

Our latest report focuses on the likely cyclical direction for Chinese inflation and economic growth in the months ahead.

Related News & Events

Auf der Suche nach der Rezession in den USA

Neue Zürcher Zeitung August 24, 2012

Die US-Wirtschaft quält sich gemessen am BIP langsam voran. Manche Beobachter meinen mit Blick auf einen breiteren Zahlenkranz jedoch, eine milde Rezession in den USA habe bereits begonnen. More

 

Recession Here

Bloomberg July 10, 2012

It takes time to realize that a recession has already begun. More