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Aug 29 2012

China Slows as Expected, but What Comes Next?

Over the past few years, and especially as other economies have stumbled, it became an article of faith that emerging markets, in particular China, would manage to drive global growth. With China responsible for about a fifth of the world’s industrial output, such hope is understandable.

Lately though, there has been a perceived shudder of weakness in Chinese economic indicators, notably for GDP and manufacturing, which has roiled the consensus. Is this weakness likely to worsen, or is it just a blip in activity? Last fall, ECRI predicted a cyclical downturn in China, concluding that it would be unable to rescue the global economy from its downturn.

Our latest report focuses on the likely cyclical direction for Chinese inflation and economic growth in the months ahead.

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